Autonomous Fighter Jets: Are Pilots Becoming Obsolete?

The Challenge: The Future of Human Pilots in Aerial Combat

Before we get granular about autonomous jets, let’s talk about Top Gun for a second.

Hollywood is good at two things: storytelling and captivating visuals. Despite the lack of authenticity in the films (as many current and former pilots pointed out), both succeeded in entertaining their audiences. Beyond the gripping dogfights and cavalier attitudes of the film’s popular alpha-male protagonists, both films serve as homages (love letters, if you will) to not only what the Department of Defense describes as “The Edge of Aviation” and “the Navy’s elite fighter weapons school,” but to the brave men and women who have piloted, and continue to pilot these incredible machines.

For over a century, fighter pilots have been at the center of air superiority, relying on skill, strategy, and split-second decision-making to influence the outcome of a mission, much like our Top Gun protagonists. But as artificial intelligence and autonomous systems advance, the most advanced militaries are questioning the necessity of maintaining manned aircraft as the race for air superiority enters a new chapter.

New Ideas: AI-Powered Combat Systems

Ongoing development of advanced unmanned aerial vehicles through programs such as the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance Program (NGAD), gives us some insight as to what is likely to play out over the coming years and decades. While the program is largely classified, we can get a pretty good idea of what AI-powered next generation air superiority might look like based on some well-understood consumer technologies and tidbits of information the government has made available.  

Current 4^th and even 5^th generation machinery tends to be deployed in formations of 2-6 manned units flying in unison, with each aircraft/squadron communicating with an Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) jet or some kind of ground-based command center. In this scenario, each jet, despite being a component of an aerial formation, is ultimately a stand-alone unit and is responsible for its own offensive and defensive capabilities.

6^th generation equipment seeks to revolutionize aerial combat through networking capabilities that ultimately begin to resemble swarm warfare, where manned aircraft become airborne command centers as part of “an integrated and resilient high-capacity battle management command, control and communications network [designed] to address asymmetries in long-range intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.”

In practical terms, this “network” or “family of systems” approach allows each 5^th and 6^th generation fighter to control what are known as “collaborative combat aircraft” (CCA)- easily upgradable and (potentially) modular unmanned units with onboard AI control systems that can be pre-programmed with mission objectives prior to deployment, each with different capabilities and payloads that would vary based on each mission. Examples will likely include radar jamming, intelligence gathering and the ability to engage with enemy aircraft or land/sea-based targets, implying some sort of payload capacity. A minimum of 2 CCAs are expected to fly with each manned NGAD unit, allowing pilots to focus on strategic oversight.

NGAD and CCA units are set to incrementally enter service by 2030, with CCAs likely airborne before any 6^th generation NGAD unit gets off the ground, but the under-appreciated component of the transition to AI-powered combat systems is the purported cost per unit. At $25-$30MM a piece, this new technology completely changes the economics of warfare, something that could potentially introduce new aerial adversaries that were otherwise “priced out” of being credible threats.    

What’s Holding Us Back and What’s Next

While the benefits are abundantly clear, autonomy in aerial combat faces technical, ethical, and strategic hurdles. The challenge lies in balancing AI’s advantages—such as faster reaction times and reduced human risk—with concerns about reliability, ethics, and control. Autonomous aircraft must be able to interpret complex battle scenarios, adapt to unpredictable situations, and make tactical decisions without much human oversight, raising moral questions about accountability and trust in machine-driven warfare. Critics cite “autonomous kill decisions” as one of the biggest areas of concern.

4^th and 5^th generation fighters will remain in service for the foreseeable future since hybrid combat models driven by human decision-making are likely to dominate in the near to medium term, with human pilots working alongside increasingly capable AI-driven aircraft.

What remains to be seen however, is how militaries will adapt to a world where machines can capably fight wars at superhuman speeds, but at a fraction of the cost.

Sources:

• https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Experience/Top-Gun-The-Edge-of-Aviation/ 

• https://news.usni.org/2025/01/20/report-to-congress-on-u-s-air-force-next-generation-air-dominance-fighter 

• https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12740/3 

• https://www.csis.org/analysis/cca-signals-new-era-ai-driven-air-combat#:~:text=Former%20Secretary%20of%20the%20Air,aircraft%20for%20over%20a%20decade

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