On The Future

The story of human ingenuity and innovation is a fascinating one. It spans millions of years and hundreds of thousands of evolutionary and revolutionary developments.

But what stands out most is humanity’s ability to innovate at an ever-accelerating pace. For example, it took 2.3 million years to progress from the creation of the first tools to the harnessing of fire, but only 66 years to go from the first powered flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903 to landing on the Moon in 1969.

And that was before the Internet and modern computing.

Today, we are in the midst of the next wave of technological change, but to set the stage for where we are going (and why we’re heading there), it’s useful to take a quick look at some of the economic themes of the last 50 years. 

An Abbreviated History of Macroeconomic Themes

In the decades leading up to the 1970s, as nations rebuilt their post-war economies, they prioritized local production and the selective use of protectionist policies to ensure self-reliance. The 1970s, however, shifted this paradigm as neoliberalism challenged state-led models. The world began to embrace peace through integration, trade barriers were lowered, and multinational firms sought efficiencies. The transition to a new world order, though protracted, eventually gave way to the extensive deregulation and market-driven prosperity of the 1980s. This deregulation subsequently fueled the tech boom of the 1990s.

Things appeared to be going well.

And yet, while the dominant political and economic powers had succeeded in establishing a new world order (globalization), the 2000s’ dot-com crash and 2008 financial crisis sparked skepticism. Trade frictions and exposed supply chain vulnerabilities prompted a reevaluation of interdependence. This shift currently appears to be driving a new world order: one that favors a pre-1970s focus on strategic self-reliance over global integration.

The implications for the next industrial revolution are critical.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Forces Shaping Tomorrow

The First, Second and Third Industrial Revolutions introduced the world to steam power, mechanization, electricity, mass production, digital technology and automation. A confluence of new technologies, may even eclipse the disruptions of its predecessors.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution will fuse the physical and digital realms. A.I. will automate both the mundane and the complex, augment human cognition, and unlock discoveries at unprecedented speeds. Supply chains will repatriate what they can, particularly in pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and rare earths. Whether this implies increased domestic production or “friendshoring” (critical functions being, at the very least, restricted to friendly nations) remains to be seen, but whoever masters these trends will have the ability to reshape industry and the future.

Nations and their leading companies are investing heavily in this pursuit, making our era the most dynamic and investable one in history.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. The views expressed are those of the author and are not intended to be relied upon for making investment decisions. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.